Abstract
Rising food prices have become a significant threat to household food security in urban areas across Nigeria. This study investigates the impacts of increasing food prices on the food security of different socio-economic groups in Abuja. Using a cross-sectional survey of 400 households and applying the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS), Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), and multinomial logistic regression, the study assesses how price increases shape food access, dietary quality, and coping behaviours. Results show that only 18% of households were food secure, while 56% experienced moderate to severe food insecurity. Food price inflation had a significant negative effect on food security (β = –0.684, p < 0.001), especially among low-income households. Higher income, education, and employment improved food security outcomes, whereas a higher food expenditure share and a larger household size worsened vulnerability. The multinomial model further revealed that rising food prices increase the likelihood of mild, moderate, and severe food insecurity by 53%, 88%, and 132%, respectively. The study concludes that socio-economic disparities strongly mediate food security outcomes in Abuja and recommends targeted social protection, food price stabilisation policies, and support for urban agriculture to mitigate the effects of food price inflation.