Abstract
This mixed-methods study examines the impacts of recurrent flooding on agricultural productivity, household welfare, and adaptive capacity in the Orashi region. Objectives were to document farmers’ lived experiences, quantify flood impacts on income, food security, and employment, and assess adaptive strategies and institutional supports to inform policy. Quantitative analyses, which included one-way ANOVA, paired t-tests, and multiple linear and logistic regressions, were complemented by interviews and focus groups with farmers, extension agents, and community leaders. Results show a clear spatial gradient in agricultural losses: mean yield losses averaged 18.7% in low exposure communities, 25.6% in medium exposure communities, and 33.9% in high exposure communities (ANOVA F(2,354) = 8.72, p < 0.001). Paired t tests revealed a significant household income decline from ₦1,240,000 pre-flood to ₦934,000 post-flood. Dietary diversity fell (HDDS 7.8 → 5.6; t significant), and employment disruptions were concentrated among casual labourers and traders. Logistic regression identified flood exposure, small farm size (<2 ha), and lack of credit as strong predictors of severe food insecurity. Findings indicate that vulnerability arises from interacting biophysical and socioeconomic factors and that locally practised coping measures, such as early harvesting, raised beds, and seedling relocation, offer partial protection but are limited by finance, seed systems, labour, and tenure insecurity. Policy priorities include spatially targeted seed and input support, strengthened pre-season extension and early warning, flexible finance for smallholders and tenants, community-scale drainage and storage investments, and improved coordination at local government levels. Together, these measures can reduce recurrent losses and strengthen resilience in Orashi’s flood-exposed agrarian communities.