Abstract
The study assessed the predictive validity of mental health indicators on out-of-school rates among public secondary school students in Rivers State. Three research questions and three null hypotheses guided the conduct of the study. The study adopted a correlational research design. This study was carried out across the three senatorial districts in Rivers State. The population of the study was 6570. Sample size was 377 derived using the Taro Yamane sample size calculator. Purposive sampling technique was used to compose the sample. The instruments for data collection were self-designed questionnaire titled “Assessing the Predictive Validity of Mental Health Indicators on Out-of-School Rates (APVMHIOR) and a researcher-designed checklist title “Checklist for Out- Of-School Rate (COSR). Research instruments were subjected to face and content validity by two experts in Measurement and Evaluation, Rivers State University. The reliability of the instrument (APVMHIOR) was established using Cronbach’s Alpha method which yielded a 0.86 reliability coefficient. Simple linear regression was used to answer the research questions and the null hypotheses were tested at 0.05 level of significance. The study reveals that stress, self-esteem, and social support are significant predictors of out-of-school rates among public secondary school students in Rivers State. The study therefore recommended that schools should implement structured stress management interventions and self-esteem building programs to support students' mental wellbeing and academic performance. Additionally, stakeholders should design formal support systems, such as mentorship programs and peer study groups, that align with school objectives to encourage student engagement and responsibility, rather than relying on informal support.