Abstract
This study investigates the impact of human capital development on poverty levels in Nigeria from 1986 to 2023. Using annual time-series data from the World Bank, the National Bureau of Statistics, and the Central Bank of Nigeria, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to assess short- and long-run relationships among education, health indicators, and poverty levels. The human capital variables used include government expenditure on education, school enrollment rates, life expectancy, and public health expenditure, while poverty is proxied by the headcount ratio. The empirical results reveal a significant long-run negative relationship between human capital development and poverty levels. Improvements in education and health were found to substantially reduce poverty, though short-run effects were modest due to structural constraints. The study concludes that enhancing human capital remains a critical pathway for sustainable poverty reduction in Nigeria. It recommends increased public investment in education and health, improved quality of service delivery, strengthened social protection systems, regional-specific interventions, and greater labour market absorption to maximise the poverty-reducing effects of human capital. The findings contribute to policy discourse on enhancing human development strategies for inclusive growth.